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You can see the rise in imports from a lot lower than 1% within the 1960s to about 2% of US GDP within the mid 2000s (till the good recession hit). The other attention-grabbing issue is that consumption of autos (as a fraction of the economy) started a serious decline in the early 2000s. That’s going to complicate the evaluation which I will take up again in the next submit.
Complicating your train even more is the fact that folks tend to maintain their automobiles longer these days than they used to. This is in large part because high quality has gone up, lowering the frequency needed to purchase a brand new car. I believe this has much more to do with the declining share of GDP devoted to auto purchases than any of the other components you mentioned.
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The odd-wanting line in this graph is the one for domestic consumption of autos and components as a fraction of GDP; the road starts to drop after 2002, only reversing in 2010. It is odd to me as a result of a graph of US car gross sales is actually flat from 2001 to 2007 at between 16 and 17 million vehicles per yr. Reading off Stuart’s graph above, the gross consumption line starts at about three.7% of GDP in 2001 and drops to around 2.eight% in 2007, so roughly a 25% drop. Looking at BEA Desk 1.1.5. US GDP rose 36% throughout that period.